Lies, Damn Lies... and Statistics

It's an extremely frustrating habit to have but every year July is never a great month for us winners-wise.

Annoyingly, we hit the crossbar again this week when Exopuntia came third at Newmarket on Friday night. Take nothing away from the filly, it was probably a career best run, but it was yet another runner without a winner.

It came after some disappointing runs from a few horses and although it's easy to say the yard is under form, I think it's far from the case.

As a small yard, a lot of our horses tend to win early in the year and come the middle months, the horses are rated too high after a successful period. By August, the horses are back to winning marks and get their heads in front. I looked up the statistics on the Racing Post website and was surprised to see such a trend - last July we had 22 runners without a winner. Although we're only up to 12 runners so far this month, I'm pretty sure it's nothing more than coincidence.

I say this because we've got a great chance of success tomorrow at Yarmouth. I don't run many horses in selling races but Red Hearts goes down into that grade as she has already won a maiden but, as a result, is rated far too high to win a handicap so a seller is her best option. There is the worry someone may buy her afterwards as she has the best form in the event but she is a tiny horse and I hope that puts people off her as she could win a few more races of that type.Pyjoma also runs and we're hoping she can show a bit more promise than she did last time.

We won't be racing until Sunday after that when my two children, Ross and Shelley, ride against each other for the first time at Newbury. They are at either ends of the experience scale with Ross having ridden ten winners and Shelley yet to score but the signs look good for her; Ross rode his first winner at Newbury in the same colours that Shelley will be wearing - those of Entrance. The filly ran a bit below par on Friday after being in such great form but I do feel that the ground may have been a bit soft for her as the jockey said she never picked up after travelling well. I do hope that is the case as Entrance has a great chance.

Ross will be riding a new horse to us called The Ducking Stool. She's a big filly and will probably need the race after not running in a long time but she does work OK at home.

If there are scores to settle from this Newbury encounter, the rematch comes the following day at Windsor. Ross is on his favourite horse, Bavarica, who he has won five times on. It is also Bavarica's 100th career race so it would be amazing to make it a winning one and we'll be doing everything we can to make sure. However, I won't be too upset if she is denied by Shelley's mount Sand Repeal. He won the same race a few years back but has been injured since. He is slowly coming back to form and hopefully he can run respectably.

Three To Follow Update

As we are now halfway through the competition, now is your chance to add another horse to your selections to boost your chances of winning. To keep things simple, instead of substituting one horse for another, just add a selection to your current list of three so you end up with four horses.

All points already scored by an added horse will not be added to your current score but any points from August 1st onwards will.

To make a selection, simply leave your name and choice in the comment box below or email to: rbirkett1989@hotmail.co.uk

Here is the list of horses to choose from and their current points in brackets:Emma's Gift (10), Entrance (13), Sancho Panza (18), Khajaaly (3), Sand Repeal, Exopuntia (3), Automotive, Sail Home (10), Verona Bay, Blackmore (5), Pyjoma, Acer Diamonds, Spirit of Sharjah, King Columbo, Angel Of Mercy, Red Hearts (13), Bavarica (13), Premier League (10), Canning Vale.

Lady Luck Is Running Late

We've had our fair share of bad luck over the last few weeks and if the law of karma is correct, we should be in for a good period soon... and I hope it is going to be the next seven days.

I mention our luckless spell as on Tuesday we were dealt with another blow after it emerged that Generous Genella had suffered a tendon injury. Luckily, we had caught the tear in the early stages so she should make a 100% recovery given time off but it is a real shame as she had just run the most promising race of her career when finishing third at Pontefract, despite the jockey putting up three pounds overweight.

Thankfully, her superb syndicate of owners have stuck by her during this injury and I'm in no doubt that their patience will be rewarded when she returns to the track next year.

Also out for the rest of the season is one of the two French horses we bought at the Deauville sales last year. In truth, Argante Claudius had never really been in proper training as he came to us after being broken-in and then suffered an ankle injury two days later. After recovering from this, he suffered a severe bout of colic and only had 24 hours to live but he pulled through that and we have decided that there's no point in running him this year after all he's been through.

He's a giant, grey horse and I think having his juvenile season off could be a blessing in disguise come the future.

The other French horse we bought at the same time as him (Verona Bay) is starting to show plenty of ability on the gallops and will be running in the next few weeks now the one mile races for two year olds are about.

As if Argante hadn't been in the vets enough, we also had him castrated on Tuesday along with our new purchase, Automotive. I cannot believe that the latter horse, who we bought from France, had run three times before we got him as he is very colty and his mind could not have been on the job when he was racing. I think this operation will be the making of him and he'll be a much more successful horse now (shares still available - plug, plug!). He has been looking good in the few canters we have done with him already.

As I said, I hope a change of fortunes come our way this week because we've got some runners that I quite fancy.

On Tuesday, Exopuntia should get the soft ground she loves at Yarmouth. She has won at the track and has a jockey who knows her in Tony Culhane. All is in place for a great run.

At Southwell the same day are two of the yard's most inconsistent horses, King Columbo and Premier League. Columbo still has plenty of ability but never seems to get the soft ground he loves nowadays. This is his first try at the course and I think he'll love the deep fibresand surface there. Likewise, Premier League seems to already like the place but he did run poorly there last time. Things are in his favour so he must have a shout.

Acer Diamonds is in the following day at Leicester but with 50 entries in the race, he will need his share of luck just to get a run. If he does, and the ground is soft, he should put in a career best effort.

Although some of our horses need the ground soft, Entrance at Newmarket on Friday night doesn't. The filly is in flying form and must be in with a chance of winning her second race of the year on only her third run.

I think I've found a weak Listed race for Emma's Gift at Ascot on the same day. The aim will be just to finish in the first three to get some black type in her pedigree that will boost her value. Looking at the entries, I do think we've got a chance of doing so.

Three To Follow Update

As we are now halfway through the competition, now is your chance to add another horse to your selections to boost your chances of winning. To keep things simple, instead of substituting one horse for another, just add a selection to your current list of three so you end up with four horses.

All points already scored by an added horse will not be added to your current score but any points from August 1st onwards will.

To make a selection, simply leave your name and choice in the comment box below or email to: rbirkett1989@hotmail.co.uk

Here is the list of horses to choose from and their current points in brackets:

Emma's Gift (10), Entrance (13), Sancho Panza (18), Khajaaly (3), Sand Repeal, Exopuntia (3), Automotive, Sail Home (10), Verona Bay, Blackmore (5), Pyjoma, Acer Diamonds, Spirit of Sharjah, King Columbo, Angel Of Mercy, Red Hearts (13), Bavarica (13), Premier League (10), Canning Vale.

Birthday Blues Disappear Thanks To Adam

They say racing is a great leveller and I couldn't agree more after the events of this week.

Tuesday night, it's my birthday and I'm evening racing at Southwell after our two runners put in disappointing displays. I won't be back home until midnight and to cap it all off... it's raining. To say there were other places I'd rather be was an understatement but come the end of the week, I was on cloud nine.

As I always go on about, my apprentice Adam Beschizza is also my nephew (sister's son) and since he was ten years old we have believed he would make an outstanding jockey. His debut season couldn't have gone any better last year with over 40 winners and a second place in the apprentice championship. This year things had been a bit slower and even though he had ridden 14 winners this term up to yesterday, he wasn't as in demand as in 2010. What he needed was a big winner - and boy did he get one!

The John Smith's Cup is the most valuable handicap run in Europe (£150,000 in prize money) and, as a result, is one of the most competitive. Luckily, Adam had manged to get a ride in it (his only one of the day) on a horse he had won on before but had run badly at Royal Ascot last month. The rest, as they say, is history.

The horse (Green Destiny) won by over three lengths and Adam showed a rare bit of emotion when punching the air as he crossed the winning line - it obviously meant a lot to him. We were screaming at the television for him and his mother was crying at the result. I hope this is the springboard that Adam has needed to really send him to the next level. He has now proven himself on the big stage and hopefully others will give him the opportunities he deserves.

The July Sales at Tattersalls are always a happy bargain hunting ground for us and we came away with what we think is another steal on Thursday.

We've had a lot of success with buying Juddmonte horses from France (Sail Home, Dance World and Spruce) and hopefully we've got one that can be even better than those three.

His name is Automotive, sired by Beat Hollow and out of a winning mare. As you can see, he's the spitting image of Blackmore and Spruce and after two runs in France, he looks ready to lift off here in the UK. We're going to geld him on Tuesday as he is pretty colty at the minute and then we will be straight into action with him.

He's available for syndication in 10th shares at £2000 (inc VAT) per share plus £180 per month all inclusive training fees.

I like him a lot and hope he could be the next star.

With various things going against us in the next few days, we will amazingly have no runners apart from Sail Home at Lingfield on Saturday. It will be her first try on polytrack and at the course but I can't see why she shouldn't like the two and hopefully she can bounce back to form.

As to last week's runners, I've already mentioned we had a bad night at Southwell after Premier League and Pyjoma were slowly away and never got competitive. That's the thing about Southwell - if you are not fast away, you're chance is over from a very early stage. It's worth forgetting these runs as they are much better than that.

Sand Repeal made his return to the racecourse after a year off through injury. He got pretty tired but at least came out of his race in good shape and he will be a force to be reckoned with next time over a bit shorter than the two miles he raced over on Thursday.

Khajaaly surprised many people by running so well at Brighton on Monday. The track is very unique and not many horses like it but he seemed very happy there and held on well for fourth. He's a consistent horse and will soon be getting his head back in front.

Three To Follow Update

No scorers this week so results are as before.

Next week the substitution window will open so get your thinking caps on to sort out your lists. Full details will be given next time.

Enjoyin' The Barbie

Shamefully for the first time this year, despite already having some great weather, we blew the dust off the barbecue and had our first dinner alfresco this week.
And why not after what had been a decent enough week, kick started on Monday with a big priced each-way double at Pontefract.

Regular readers would have remembered me saying in last week's post that I was pretty confident of Entrance and Generous Genella getting a place and they both finished third - at prices of 14/1 and 33/1 respectably.
Entrance was unlucky not to win really after missing the break and then finding herself with a wall of horses in front of her two furlongs from home. When she did get the splits, she flew home to almost grab second.

I was relieved that Genella had finally shown some form after disappointing for so long. She has loads of ability but hadn't shown it until now and we've found the key to her is a tongue strap to help her breathing. I must say thank you to her owners for being so patient as she has let them down numerous times but I'm pretty certain that she will win very soon.

Talking of fantastic owners, Dick Creese's filly Red Hearts ran another game race to finish fourth at Warwick on Friday. She was trying seven furlongs for the first time and didn't quite stay the distance. We'll probably drop her down in class to a seller next time as she's good enough to win one and is only a small two year old so probably doesn't have much improvement left in her. That said, she has won a maiden race already as well as the £10,000 Racing Post bonus that goes with it. She has more than paid her way.

The only disappointment of the week was Sail Home at Yarmouth on Thursday. Conditions seemed ideal for her but she found little in the finish. I think that at this time of year, three year olds in handicaps have such a weight for age advantage that older horses like Sail Home are finding it tough. This was demonstrated by the fact that most of the horses which beat her were three year olds. She will be back to form soon though, no doubt.

Hopefully the same comment can apply to Khajaaly when he goes to Brighton tomorrow. He didn't have much luck last time at Warwick and I feel if he handles the unique track, he'll go very close. There are five previous course winners in the race so he will have to be 100% happy on the course to run his best.

Premier League is becoming a bit of a course specialist himself - at Southwell. He's there on Tuesday and he should be in with a shout at the only track where he has won before. Pyjoma makes her handicap debut there as well and I think she's got a nice handicap. The major factor is whether she'll like the bad kickback that goes with racing at Southwell. With both of them, I hope I can get a winner - it will be my birthday after all!

If not then, I'm hopeful Entrance will get us a winner two days later at Folkestone. As already mentioned, she's in top form and I think she will be hard to beat. Also that day, Sand Repeal makes his reappearance after a year off the track. He had a tendon injury that has been doing really well since his return. He is in his usual bouncy mood but he always needs a run to get into tip-top shape.



Three To Follow Update

Entrance and Generous Genella both clocked a few points with their third places and it has strengthened Richard Salmon's lead.

1st - Richard Salmon (41 points)
2nd - Peter Darlington (36 points)
3rd - Shelley Birkett (34 points)
4th - Adam Beschizza (31 points)
5th - Martyn Clark & Maureen Youngs (28 points)

One other on 25 points, 4 on 23, 1 on 21, 3 on 18, 10 on 15, 2 on 13, 3 on 8, 1 on 5 and one person on three points.